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process of trial and error and without the errors the trials
wouldn t accomplish anything.2
Learning from mistakes also highlights another important aspect of
decisive leadership: courage and the ability to stand alone. In the words
of George Bernard Shaw:
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The reasonable man adapts himself to the world: the
unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to
himself. Therefore all progress depends on the unreasonable
man.
A natural tendency to evaluate the present or focus on the immediate
decision should be tempered with a sense of perspective and the past.
As discussed in Chapter 3, you need to avoid misinterpreting the lessons
of the past or using events to justify current decisions but with a spuri-
ous logic. The anchoring, sunk-cost and confirming evidence traps are all
behavioural flaws that rely on specific attitudes to past events. A gen-
uine understanding of the past is crucial, but it needs to be related to
what is happening in the present and kept in perspective. As Julian Bar-
bour, a theoretical physicist, says:
The higher we climb, the more comprehensive the view. Each
new vantage point yields a better understanding of the
interconnection of things. What is more, gradual accumulation
of understanding is punctuated by sudden and startling
enlargements of the horizon, as when we reach the brow of a
hill and see things never conceived of in the ascent. Once we
have found our bearings in the new landscape, our path to the
most recently attained summit is laid bare and takes its
honourable place in the new world.3
Scenario thinking (see Chapter 6), and in particular the notion of the
strategic conversation described by Kees van der Heijden, enables us to
build our knowledge and understanding of the past and present, making
connections and creating original insights that inform our decisions.
Analysing competing options
A lack of sufficiently thorough analysis is common in decision-making.
The natural tendency is for people to gravitate towards a particular
option, often because of prejudice, fear (especially fear of change), a
desire to avoid risk, laziness, or an over-reliance on instinct. Chapter 4
highlighted the importance of carefully assessing the situation, defining
critical issues and specifying the decision. These are the first three stages
of the rational decision-making process. Combining hard factors such
as data, technology and information with soft factors of intuition,
experience and creativity can test potential decisions. It is important to
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question assumptions and see things from another perspective (such as
that of the customer or person most affected by the decision).
One way of appraising competing options is to look at the desired
outcome and then see which option will achieve it. This simple
approach is often complicated by the need to prioritise goals, reduce
costs or minimise risk, and in selecting the best option usually involves
trade-offs and compromise. Another approach is to establish criteria for
the final decision for example, it needs to work quickly, not be expen-
sive, take a reasonable amount of time to organise and so forth and
then score each option against these components on a scale of 1 10. The
highest-scoring option wins. With both approaches, you need to fully
understand what each option requires, how it works and what it
achieves.
Delegating
The success or failure of a decision frequently depends on the delega-
tion process. Empowerment, which is discussed below, goes beyond the
delegation of specific tasks. It involves granting a defined level of
authority and responsibility within which someone makes their own
decisions and implements them.
There are several stages in the delegation process.
Preparing to delegate. Some preparation and planning are
always needed, perhaps limited to gaining the approval of others
or simply informing people. Priorities may also need to be
considered. Most of all, you should be clear about the reasons for
delegation and what it is meant to achieve. This requires a focus
on results and having clear, precise objectives.
Matching person and task. The person who is required to do the
job must understand it and have the personal skills and
competence to have a realistic chance of doing it successfully.
Discussing and agreeing objectives. Targets, resources, review
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